Fool Me Twice

Well, it's happened again.

Just about eight years ago today I was writing a little essay about the recent election of Donald Trump to be the 45th "president" of the United States. I made note of the despair turning to rage within the largely liberal/Democrat circle of people I tend to associate with, along with my own bafflement that such a thing was possible. I wrote about the many people who voted for him even though they didn't think he was qualified, the blame put on Democratic politicians for ignoring the grievances of the white working class, and my own prognosis for the next four years with Trump as "president". I ended on a somewhat cynical note by saying that it was probably necessary for Trump to make a royal mess of things in order for at least some of his followers to comprehend what a poor choice they had made.

Around four years ago today, I was looking at the Electoral College results and breathing a sigh of relief that we had made it through the four years just ended, and that we were finally rid of that incompetent egomaniac. Little did I know what was coming on January 6, 2021 and for the whole following four years of extended Trump-based drama. And now he's back. The atmosphere feels a lot like it did eight years ago—the anger, the finger-pointing, all that stuff. But for me, it feels a little different than it did then. 

This time around, Trump won the popular vote with around three million votes more than Harris, so we can't just blame the weirdness of our Electoral College system for putting him back into the White house. He made inroads among demographic groups that the Democrats want to think are firmly in their camp. A majority of voters took a look at four years of craziness and incompetence and said, "Yup, that was great, please give me some more." All I can think of to say to these people is an old aphorism: Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

I have heard over and over that the economy, really meaning inflation, was a deciding factor, maybe the deciding factor. It's tempting to say that Americans care more about the price of eggs than about handing over the nuclear codes to a criminal narcissist, and I have indeed said that to a few friends and family members. To put it in perspective, this same inflation happened at the same time all over the industrialized world, but the US economy has recovered far more, and far faster, than the economies of any of its peer nations. At a macro level, things are pretty good, economy-wise.

I nonetheless understand that there are a lot of people in this country living paycheck to paycheck, for whom the sudden increase in the price of groceries (and a lot of other things) coming out of the pandemic has been a huge and genuine problem. Knowing that the US has a more favorable rate of inflation or unemployment or wage growth than Italy or Japan or Australia does not somehow get the bills paid, or shrink the size of those bills back to their pre-pandemic size.

But… Americans have incredibly short memories. So many think back to the first Trump administration with some vague sense that they were better off then. They don't consider that Trump inherited a robust economy from the Obama administration, and was able to coast on that for some distance. They seem to forget the massive economic disruption that came with the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of which was undoubtedly amplified by Trump's mismanagement, especially early on when he tried to pretend that it wasn't even a problem. All they know is that the cost of living has gone up, and Biden, and by extension Harris, were in charge, so we should turn to Trump, who promises, "We will rapidly drive prices down." So yeah, eggs. 

This is all your fault.

And let's garnish those eggs with a generous sprinkling of magical thinking. Prices aren't going down. On the contrary, actual economists say that Trump's policies will drive an entirely new round of inflation—even as I write this, the CEOs of Wal-Mart, Auto Zone, Lowes and other mainstays of our consumer economy are talking about raising prices to compensate for coming tariffs. Some say that his policies will trigger a recession and damage the entire global economy. So for now, in mid-November 2024, let's take note of some key economic indicators:

• Annual GDP growth, Q3 2024: 2.8%
• Inflation: 2.6% for the 12 months ending October 2024
• Unemployment: 4.1% as of October 2024

If you follow these things, you know that that these are pretty decent numbers. Maybe we'll come back in a year or two and see what they look like, and how happy his constituents are.

But enough on economics. There are plenty of other things to worry about. As I watch him put his cabinet together, all I can do is shake my head. His choice of Little Marco to be Secretary of State surprised me, involving as it did someone with actual credentials for the job—I'm betting he'll either quit or be fired somewhere between six and twelve months in. Otherwise, it's been a parade of ideologues and sycophants with little to no actual qualifications for the offices for which they have been selected. Most of his nominees are just some guy he saw on Fox "News"; we might as well replace the presidential seal with one of those "As seen on TV!" logos.

Below cabinet level, Trump's plan to reinstate Schedule F is the beginning of a program to replace qualified, long-time civil servants with substantial experience and expertise in their respective fields with lackeys and toadies whose primary job skill is loyalty to Trump and willingness to unquestioningly toe the party line. All I'm going to say about that is: now there's a recipe for success.

I could go on and on. I could expound on how he's determined to make good on his promises to round up and deport illegal immigrants, roll back environmental regulation, promote fossil fuels and kill alternative energy, and continue his tax cuts that benefit only the highest-income earners. But to cut to the chase: I think it's going to be bad. It was bad last time, but it'll be much worse this time around because Trump is out for revenge and he is determined not to again make the mistake of surrounding himself with people who will say no. He'll be surrounded by people like Musk, Ramaswamy, RFK Jr. and others who'll be egging him on instead. I'm sure this sequel will also feature at least a few characters from the first movie, like Steve Bannon, or Steven Miller, the Jewish Eichmann (I get to say that as a Member of the Tribe). I can only hope that the infighting that will be produced by all of those monumental egos vying for the attention of the Ego in Chief will get in the way of them getting at least some of their program done.

Proceed with caution.

But the people have spoken. Or at least a majority of voters have spoken, and said that they want this. They didn't get the full program last time, but with so many of the guardrails gone, their chances are better this time. So give the people, the true believers, what they want. I will have to do what I can to insulate myself, my family, my friends against the worst effects of what I think is coming. Fortunately, unlike so many of his ardent supporters, I am not dependent on the kinds of programs that are most likely to disappear if their hero gets his way. I think they are in for a rude surprise and I can only hope that it will leave the whole MAGA program discredited in the long run.

We shall see. In that other thing I wrote eight years ago, I ended on the image of an addict having to hit rock bottom before finally swearing off the drug for good. That image seems just as apt now. We just might get there this time.